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Will it freeze in Willmar in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 29°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 29°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
6 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 29°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 28°F Hard freeze · Patchy Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 34°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 37°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 35°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Willmar
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 19, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Willmar Wastewater Plant. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 27 · May 9 · May 23 | Sep 16 · Sep 29 · Oct 11 | 142 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 16 · Apr 30 · May 13 | Sep 23 · Oct 7 · Oct 21 | 159 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 5 · Apr 19 · May 2 | Oct 2 · Oct 19 · Oct 31 | 179 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Willmar Wastewater Plant
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Willmar, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Willmar Wastewater Plant (station USC00219004, elevation 1,100 ft), 1.4 mi from Willmar. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Willmar
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Litchfield, MN | 26 mi | May 6 | Oct 2 |
| Montevideo, MN | 34 mi | May 4 | Oct 1 |
| Hutchinson, MN | 37 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 8 |
| Redwood Falls, MN | 40 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 10 |
| St. Joseph, MN | 48 mi | May 3 | Oct 7 |
| Waite Park, MN | 48 mi | May 3 | Oct 7 |
| Glencoe, MN | 50 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 4 |
| St. Cloud, MN | 52 mi | May 7 | Sep 30 |
| Morris, MN | 52 mi | May 4 | Oct 1 |
| Sartell, MN | 53 mi | May 3 | Oct 7 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Willmar?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Willmar is around April 30. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 13, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 16.
When is the first frost in Willmar?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 7. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 23 and a 90% chance by October 21.
Can it frost in Willmar after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 9.
What growing zone is Willmar?
Willmar is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −25 to −20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 56201. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze