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Will it freeze in Victoria in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 32°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 32°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Partly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Victoria
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 16, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Chaska 2NW. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 4 · May 16 · May 29 | Sep 15 · Sep 27 · Oct 8 | 133 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 21 · May 5 · May 19 | Sep 22 · Oct 5 · Oct 18 | 151 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 8 · Apr 23 · May 6 | Oct 1 · Oct 16 · Oct 28 | 174 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Chaska 2NW
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Victoria, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Chaska 2NW (station USC00211468, elevation 923 ft), 4.5 mi from Victoria. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Victoria
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mound, MN | 4.3 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 9 |
| Shorewood, MN | 4.3 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 9 |
| Chaska, MN | 5.0 mi | May 5 | Oct 5 |
| Minnetrista, MN | 5.0 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 8 |
| Chanhassen, MN | 5.6 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 9 |
| Waconia, MN | 6.2 mi | May 5 | Oct 5 |
| Orono, MN | 7.5 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 9 |
| Carver, MN | 8.1 mi | May 5 | Oct 5 |
| Eden Prairie, MN | 11 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 14 |
| Minnetonka, MN | 11 mi | Apr 29 | Oct 12 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Victoria?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Victoria is around May 5. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 19, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 21.
When is the first frost in Victoria?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 22 and a 90% chance by October 18.
Can it frost in Victoria after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 16.
What growing zone is Victoria?
Victoria is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −25 to −20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55386. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze