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Will it freeze in North Oaks in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 32°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 32°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 32°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Areas Of Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in North Oaks
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 31, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Vadnais Lake. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 19 · May 2 · May 16 | Sep 24 · Oct 7 · Oct 20 | 157 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 9 · Apr 23 · May 7 | Oct 3 · Oct 20 · Nov 2 | 177 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 2 · Apr 14 · Apr 27 | Oct 15 · Oct 31 · Nov 12 | 197 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Vadnais Lake
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for North Oaks, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Vadnais Lake (station USC00218477, elevation 890 ft), 3.9 mi from North Oaks. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near North Oaks
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shoreview, MN | 2.5 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Lino Lakes, MN | 3.7 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Vadnais Heights, MN | 3.7 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Arden Hills, MN | 3.7 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| White Bear Lake, MN | 5.0 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Mounds View, MN | 5.0 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| Little Canada, MN | 5.6 mi | Apr 23 | Oct 20 |
| New Brighton, MN | 5.6 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 8 |
| Roseville, MN | 6.8 mi | Apr 28 | Oct 8 |
| Blaine, MN | 6.8 mi | May 5 | Oct 2 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in North Oaks?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in North Oaks is around April 23. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 7, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 9.
When is the first frost in North Oaks?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 20. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 3 and a 90% chance by November 2.
Can it frost in North Oaks after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 2.
What growing zone is North Oaks?
North Oaks is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5a (average annual extreme minimum temperature −20 to −15°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55127. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze