Checking current alerts… View NWS forecast and alerts.
Will it freeze in Dayton in the next 7 nights?
The earliest overnight low at or below 32°F in the available NWS frost forecast is Tonight: 30°F (Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST).
Tonight: forecast low 30°F. Freeze.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM CST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM CST.
4 of the next 7 nights are forecast at 36°F or colder, cold enough for frost on exposed plants.
- Tonight 30°F Freeze · Mostly Cloudy then Patchy Fog
- Fri, Nov 6 29°F Freeze · Areas Of Fog
- Sat, Nov 7 36°F Frost possible · Mostly Clear
- Sun, Nov 8 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 38°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 36°F Frost possible · Partly Cloudy
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Dayton
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is October 17, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Elk Rvr. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | May 1 · May 13 · May 28 | Sep 16 · Sep 28 · Oct 9 | 134 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 22 · May 4 · May 18 | Sep 23 · Oct 5 · Oct 18 | 154 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Apr 11 · Apr 25 · May 9 | Oct 3 · Oct 17 · Oct 29 | 174 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Elk Rvr
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Dayton, MN come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Elk Rvr (station USC00212500, elevation 880 ft), 9.7 mi from Dayton. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Dayton
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anoka, MN | 4.3 mi | May 5 | Oct 2 |
| Champlin, MN | 4.3 mi | May 5 | Oct 2 |
| Rogers, MN | 5.0 mi | May 4 | Oct 5 |
| Ramsey, MN | 5.0 mi | May 4 | Oct 5 |
| Maple Grove, MN | 5.6 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 8 |
| Corcoran, MN | 7.5 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 8 |
| Coon Rapids, MN | 8.1 mi | May 5 | Oct 2 |
| Andover, MN | 8.1 mi | May 5 | Oct 2 |
| Brooklyn Park, MN | 8.1 mi | Apr 30 | Oct 8 |
| Otsego, MN | 8.7 mi | May 4 | Oct 5 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Dayton?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Dayton is around May 4. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 18, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 22.
When is the first frost in Dayton?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 5. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by September 23 and a 90% chance by October 18.
Can it frost in Dayton after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 13.
What growing zone is Dayton?
Dayton is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 4b (average annual extreme minimum temperature −25 to −20°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 55327. See growing zones in Minnesota.
More: all Minnesota frost dates · Minnesota growing zones · frost vs. freeze