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Will it freeze in Manchester in the next 7 nights?
No overnight lows at or below 32°F are forecast in Manchester during the next 7 nights in the available NWS frost forecast.
Tonight: forecast low 57°F. Above 36°F.
NWS forecast period: Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST to Fri, Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST.
No nights at or below 36°F in the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 nights.
- Tonight 57°F Above 36°F · Chance Rain Showers
- Fri, Nov 6 48°F Above 36°F · Mostly Cloudy
- Sat, Nov 7 42°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
- Sun, Nov 8 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Mon, Nov 9 39°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Tue, Nov 10 40°F Above 36°F · Mostly Clear
- Wed, Nov 11 37°F Above 36°F · Partly Cloudy
Overnight lows from the National Weather Service forecast for this location. This covers the available forecast window, not the first freeze of the whole season. Frost can form above 32°F on clear, calm nights.
Frost and freeze probabilities
Freeze dates shift from year to year. Spring percentages describe the chance of a freeze after the stated date; fall percentages describe the chance of a freeze by that date. The 10% spring date is the cautious one: a later freeze happens about 1 year in 10.
These dates describe historical probabilities, not this year’s forecast or the earliest and latest possible freezes. Different weather stations or probability thresholds can produce different published dates for the same city.
Average first hard freeze in Manchester
The median first fall hard-freeze date (28°F) is November 4, from NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals at Millers 4 NE. This is the 50% probability date, not a forecast for this year.
| Temperature | Last spring date 90% · 50% · 10% chance of a later freeze | First fall date 10% · 50% · 90% chance of an earlier freeze | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F frost possible | Apr 17 · May 2 · May 18 | Oct 1 · Oct 13 · Oct 27 | 162 days |
| 32°F freeze | Apr 4 · Apr 19 · May 8 | Oct 8 · Oct 25 · Nov 7 | 188 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | Mar 22 · Apr 5 · Apr 21 | Oct 20 · Nov 4 · Nov 20 | 213 days |
Average high temperature by month
1991–2020 normals at Millers 4 NE
Average low temperature by month
Months with lows near or below freezing carry frost risk
Where these frost dates come from
The frost dates for Manchester, MD come from the nearest weather station with freeze statistics in NOAA’s 1991–2020 Climate Normals: Millers 4 NE (station USC00185934, elevation 860 ft), 6.4 mi from Manchester. Local conditions (valleys, hilltops, distance to water, city heat) can shift frost dates by days or weeks. The hardiness zone is from the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (USDA ARS and Oregon State University PRISM). See our methodology.
Frost dates near Manchester
| City | Distance | Last spring frost | First fall frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hampstead, MD | 3.1 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 25 |
| Westminster, MD | 8.1 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 20 |
| New Freedom, PA | 12 mi | Apr 19 | Oct 25 |
| Hanover, PA | 12 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 20 |
| Taneytown, MD | 15 mi | Apr 22 | Oct 20 |
| West York, PA | 22 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 19 |
| Gettysburg, PA | 22 mi | Apr 24 | Oct 21 |
| Red Lion, PA | 22 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 19 |
| York, PA | 23 mi | Apr 26 | Oct 19 |
| Mount Airy, MD | 24 mi | Apr 14 | Oct 29 |
Frequently asked questions
When is the last frost in Manchester?
On average, the last spring frost (32°F) in Manchester is around April 19. In about 1 year in 10 it comes after May 8, and in 9 years in 10 it comes after April 4.
When is the first frost in Manchester?
The first fall frost (32°F) usually arrives around October 25. There’s a 10% chance of a freeze by October 8 and a 90% chance by November 7.
Can it frost in Manchester after the last frost date?
Yes. Frost can form on clear, calm nights even when the air stays above 32°F. Temperatures of 36°F or lower, cold enough for frost on exposed plants, have a 50% chance of occurring after May 2.
What growing zone is Manchester?
Manchester is in USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 7a (average annual extreme minimum temperature 0 to 5°F), based on the 2023 USDA map for ZIP code 21074. See growing zones in Maryland.
More: all Maryland frost dates · Maryland growing zones · frost vs. freeze